Cody Garbrandt vs Takeya Mizugaki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record23-14-2
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
65" Reach68,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamHakkei Gym
What's at stake
Cody Garbrandt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Takeya Mizugaki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1680
If they lose-14→ 1656
If they win+14→ 1635
If they lose-10→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1707 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cody GarbrandtTakeya Mizugaki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cody Garbrandt72%
Takeya Mizugaki 28%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Cody Garbrandt a 72% favorite over Takeya Mizugaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Cody Garbrandt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1621, a 49-point edge.
Cody Garbrandt finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Takeya Mizugaki 26%.
Takeya Mizugaki carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.