Combat Edge Intelligence

Cody Garbrandt vs Takeya Mizugaki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-8-0Record23-14-2
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
65" Reach68,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamHakkei Gym

What's at stake

Cody Garbrandt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Takeya Mizugaki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cody GarbrandtNow 1671
If they win+10→ 1681
If they lose-14→ 1657
Takeya MizugakiNow 1608
If they win+14→ 1622
If they lose-10→ 1598

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.79
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
40%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
59%
Strike defense
58%
0.85
Takedown avg.
1.46
23%
Takedown accuracy
58%
82%
Takedown defense
70%
0
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Cody GarbrandtTakeya Mizugaki
1600165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (73%)
KO/TKO
5 (22%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (4%)
4 (27%)
Decision
17 (74%)

Combat Edge model read

Cody Garbrandt76%
Takeya Mizugaki 24%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Cody Garbrandt a 76% favorite over Takeya Mizugaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Cody Garbrandt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1671 to 1608, a 63-point edge.

Cody Garbrandt finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Takeya Mizugaki 26%.

Takeya Mizugaki carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.