Cody Garbrandt vs TJ Dillashaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-7-0Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
65" Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamThe Treigning Lab
What's at stake
TJ Dillashaw is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Cody Garbrandt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1709
If they lose-13→ 1677
If they win+13→ 1776
If they lose-19→ 1744
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1755 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cody GarbrandtTJ Dillashaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Dillashaw51%
Cody Garbrandt 49%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Dillashaw a 51% favorite over Cody Garbrandt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
TJ Dillashaw holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1763 to 1690, a 73-point edge.
Cody Garbrandt finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, TJ Dillashaw 65%.
Cody Garbrandt and TJ Dillashaw share 1 common opponent: Raphael Assunção.
TJ Dillashaw carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.