Combat Edge Intelligence

Cody McKenzie vs Vagner Rocha

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record14-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Warrior CampTeamTeam VRMA

What's at stake

Vagner Rocha is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Cody McKenzie carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cody McKenzieNow 1544
If they win+17→ 1561
If they lose-7→ 1537
Vagner RochaNow 1684
If they win+10→ 1694
If they lose-22→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1539 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.74
Sig. strikes / min
2.64
34%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.50
67%
Strike defense
48%
2.50
Takedown avg.
1.40
25%
Takedown accuracy
33%
14%
Takedown defense
50%
2.50
Submission avg.
1.86

Trajectory

Cody McKenzieVagner Rocha
15501600165017002015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

1 (6%)
KO/TKO
3 (21%)
15 (88%)
Submission
8 (57%)
1 (6%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Vagner Rocha75%
Cody McKenzie 25%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Vagner Rocha a 75% favorite over Cody McKenzie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Vagner Rocha holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1544, a 140-point edge.

Vagner Rocha enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Cody McKenzie finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Vagner Rocha 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.