Cody Pfister vs Sage Northcutt
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-1Record12-3-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
73,0"Reach71,5"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Nick's Fight ClubTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 22 rated
What's at stake
Sage Northcutt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Cody Pfister carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1585
If they lose-9→ 1561
If they win+12→ 1675
If they lose-20→ 1643
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cody PfisterSage Northcutt
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sage Northcutt78%
Cody Pfister 22%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Sage Northcutt a 78% favorite over Cody Pfister in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Sage Northcutt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1570, a 93-point edge.
Cody Pfister enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Cody Pfister finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Sage Northcutt 75%.
Cody Pfister carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.