Combat Edge Intelligence

Colby Covington vs Dong Hyun Ma

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record16-11-3
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
72"Reach70.50
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
MMA MastersTeamBusan Team MAD

What's at stake

Colby Covington is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Dong Hyun Ma carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Colby CovingtonNow 1765
If they win+9→ 1774
If they lose-23→ 1742
Dong Hyun MaNow 1615
If they win+17→ 1632
If they lose-7→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1645 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.81
Sig. strikes / min
2.12
38%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.89
55%
Strike defense
59%
3.64
Takedown avg.
2.93
43%
Takedown accuracy
44%
69%
Takedown defense
72%
0.16
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Colby CovingtonDong Hyun Ma
1600165017001750180020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
6 (38%)
4 (24%)
Submission
6 (38%)
9 (53%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Colby Covington78%
Dong Hyun Ma 22%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Colby Covington a 78% favorite over Dong Hyun Ma in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Colby Covington holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1615, a 150-point edge.

Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dong Hyun Ma enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Dong Hyun Ma 75%.

Colby Covington carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.