Colby Covington vs Francisco Trinaldo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record29-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'8"
72"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamBrazilian TKO
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1781
If they lose-16→ 1749
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Colby CovingtonFrancisco Trinaldo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Trinaldo54%
Colby Covington 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 54% favorite over Colby Covington in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1765 vs 1766), separated by just 1 points.
Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Trinaldo 52%.
Colby Covington carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.