Combat Edge Intelligence

Colby Covington vs Jonathan Meunier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record9-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'3"
72"Reach75,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamTristar Quebec

What's at stake

Colby Covington is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jonathan Meunier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Colby CovingtonNow 1765
If they win+11→ 1776
If they lose-21→ 1744
Jonathan MeunierNow 1660
If they win+21→ 1681
If they lose-11→ 1649

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.81
Sig. strikes / min
3.47
38%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.43
55%
Strike defense
70%
3.64
Takedown avg.
0.58
29%
Takedown accuracy
33%
69%
Takedown defense
59%
0.16
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Colby CovingtonJonathan Meunier
1650170017501800201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
5 (56%)
4 (24%)
Submission
2 (22%)
9 (53%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Colby Covington67%
Jonathan Meunier 33%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Colby Covington a 67% favorite over Jonathan Meunier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Colby Covington holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1660, a 105-point edge.

Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Jonathan Meunier 78%.

Jonathan Meunier carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.