Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record35-17-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
72"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Colby Covington is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jorge Masvidal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1780
If they lose-17→ 1748
If they win+13→ 1753
If they lose-11→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1781 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Colby CovingtonJorge Masvidal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Colby Covington70%
Jorge Masvidal 30%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Colby Covington a 70% favorite over Jorge Masvidal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Colby Covington holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1740, a 25-point edge.
Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Masvidal 51%.
Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal share 2 common opponents: Kamaru Usman and Demian Maia.
Jorge Masvidal carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2021
LossTKO · 2019
LossKO · 2021
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2020