Colby Covington vs Leon Edwards
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record22-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
72"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamTeam Renegade· 1731 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Leon Edwards is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Colby Covington carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1782
If they lose-15→ 1750
If they win+11→ 1807
If they lose-13→ 1783
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1780 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Colby CovingtonLeon Edwards
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Leon Edwards70%
Colby Covington 30%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Leon Edwards a 70% favorite over Colby Covington in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Leon Edwards holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1765, a 31-point edge.
Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Leon Edwards 45%.
Colby Covington and Leon Edwards share 2 common opponents: Kamaru Usman and Rafael dos Anjos.
Leon Edwards carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.