Combat Edge Intelligence

Colby Covington vs Logan Storley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record19-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
72"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Colby CovingtonNow 1765
If they win+16→ 1781
If they lose-16→ 1749
Logan StorleyNow 1760
If they win+16→ 1776
If they lose-16→ 1744

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.81
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
38%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
3.64
Takedown avg.
TBD
43%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
69%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.16
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Colby CovingtonLogan Storley
175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
9 (47%)
4 (24%)
Submission
0 (0%)
9 (53%)
Decision
10 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

Logan Storley70%
Colby Covington 30%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Logan Storley a 70% favorite over Colby Covington in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Colby Covington's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1765 vs 1760), separated by just 5 points.

Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Logan Storley 47%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.