Combat Edge Intelligence

Colby Covington vs Lorenz Larkin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record27-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
72"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamMillennia MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Colby CovingtonNow 1765
If they win+16→ 1781
If they lose-16→ 1749
Lorenz LarkinNow 1766
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.81
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
38%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.74
55%
Strike defense
64%
3.64
Takedown avg.
0.27
43%
Takedown accuracy
43%
69%
Takedown defense
79%
0.16
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Colby CovingtonLorenz Larkin
1750180020232024

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
15 (56%)
4 (24%)
Submission
0 (0%)
9 (53%)
Decision
12 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Colby Covington52%
Lorenz Larkin 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Colby Covington a 52% favorite over Lorenz Larkin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lorenz Larkin's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1765 vs 1766), separated by just 1 points.

Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.