Combat Edge Intelligence

Colby Covington vs Max Griffin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record20-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
72"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamMMAGOLD Fight Team

What's at stake

Colby Covington is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Max Griffin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Colby CovingtonNow 1765
If they win+12→ 1777
If they lose-20→ 1745
Max GriffinNow 1669
If they win+15→ 1684
If they lose-9→ 1660

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.81
Sig. strikes / min
3.76
38%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.70
55%
Strike defense
58%
3.64
Takedown avg.
1.28
43%
Takedown accuracy
41%
69%
Takedown defense
70%
0.16
Submission avg.
0.26

Trajectory

Colby CovingtonMax Griffin
16501700175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
9 (45%)
4 (24%)
Submission
2 (10%)
9 (53%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Colby Covington70%
Max Griffin 30%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Colby Covington a 70% favorite over Max Griffin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Colby Covington holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1669, a 96-point edge.

Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Max Griffin 55%.

Max Griffin carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.