Combat Edge Intelligence

Colby Covington vs Mike Malott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Mike Malott
ca

Mike Malott

“Proper”

14-2-1WelterweightUFC

1762Great

Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record14-2-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
72"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Colby CovingtonNow 1765
If they win+16→ 1781
If they lose-16→ 1749
Mike MalottNow 1762
If they win+16→ 1778
If they lose-16→ 1746

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.81
Sig. strikes / min
3.93
38%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
55%
Strike defense
56%
3.64
Takedown avg.
1.88
43%
Takedown accuracy
50%
69%
Takedown defense
14%
0.16
Submission avg.
0.75

Trajectory

Colby CovingtonMike Malott
1700175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
6 (43%)
4 (24%)
Submission
6 (43%)
9 (53%)
Decision
2 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Malott73%
Colby Covington 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Malott a 73% favorite over Colby Covington in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Colby Covington's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1765 vs 1762), separated by just 3 points.

Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mike Malott enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Mike Malott 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.