Colby Covington vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record32-17-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
72"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
MMA MastersTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Colby Covington is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1779
If they lose-18→ 1747
If they win+14→ 1727
If they lose-10→ 1703
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Colby CovingtonRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Colby Covington72%
Rafael dos Anjos 28%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Colby Covington a 72% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Colby Covington holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1713, a 52-point edge.
Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Colby Covington and Rafael dos Anjos share 1 common opponent: Leon Edwards.
Colby Covington carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.