Colby Covington vs Robbie Lawler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record30-16-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
72"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Colby Covington carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1782
If they lose-15→ 1750
If they win+11→ 1799
If they lose-13→ 1775
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Colby CovingtonRobbie Lawler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Robbie Lawler52%
Colby Covington 48%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 52% favorite over Colby Covington in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1765, a 23-point edge.
Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.
Colby Covington and Robbie Lawler share 2 common opponents: Tyron Woodley and Rafael dos Anjos.
Robbie Lawler carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.