Combat Edge Intelligence

Colby Covington vs Wagner Silva

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record10-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
72"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA MastersTeamTata Fight Team

What's at stake

Colby Covington is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Wagner Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Colby CovingtonNow 1765
If they win+6→ 1771
If they lose-26→ 1739
Wagner SilvaNow 1522
If they win+26→ 1548
If they lose-6→ 1516

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.81
Sig. strikes / min
1.69
38%
Strike accuracy
30%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.87
55%
Strike defense
66%
3.64
Takedown avg.
0
43%
Takedown accuracy
0%
69%
Takedown defense
58%
0.16
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Colby CovingtonWagner Silva
16001700180020232024

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
4 (24%)
Submission
5 (50%)
9 (53%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Colby Covington80%
Wagner Silva 20%Elo baseline: 80%

The Combat Edge model makes Colby Covington a 80% favorite over Wagner Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).

Colby Covington holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1522, a 243-point edge.

Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Wagner Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Wagner Silva 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.