Combat Edge Intelligence

Colby Covington vs Warlley Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height5'11"
72"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight186 lbs
MMA MastersTeamRizzo RVT

What's at stake

Colby Covington is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Warlley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Colby CovingtonNow 1765
If they win+10→ 1775
If they lose-22→ 1743
Warlley AlvesNow 1625
If they win+22→ 1647
If they lose-10→ 1615

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.81
Sig. strikes / min
3.04
38%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.95
55%
Strike defense
51%
3.64
Takedown avg.
1.22
43%
Takedown accuracy
50%
69%
Takedown defense
63%
0.16
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Colby CovingtonWarlley Alves
1650170017501800202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
4 (24%)
Submission
6 (43%)
9 (53%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Colby Covington75%
Warlley Alves 25%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Colby Covington a 75% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Colby Covington holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1625, a 140-point edge.

Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.