Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record8-2-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
69"Reach74"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Freestyle Fighting Gym· 1729 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamElite Training Center - Lubumbashi
What's at stake
Colby Thicknesse is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Josias Musasa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1684
If they lose-17→ 1652
If they win+25→ 1676
If they lose-23→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1530 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Colby ThicknesseJosias Musasa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Josias Musasa53%
Colby Thicknesse 47%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Josias Musasa a 53% favorite over Colby Thicknesse in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Colby Thicknesse's way (47%).
Colby Thicknesse holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1651, a 18-point edge.
Colby Thicknesse enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Colby Thicknesse finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Josias Musasa 88%.
Colby Thicknesse and Josias Musasa share 1 common opponent: Marven Malunes.
Josias Musasa carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
WinKO (Elbows) · 2024
WinKO (Flying Knee) · 2024