Combat Edge Intelligence

Colby Thicknesse vs Marcirley Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

9-1-0Record15-5-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'4"
69"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Freestyle Fighting GymTeamChute Boxe Joao Emilio

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Colby ThicknesseNow 1667
If they win+16→ 1683
If they lose-16→ 1651
Marcirley AlvesNow 1667
If they win+16→ 1683
If they lose-16→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.33
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
42%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
50%
Strike defense
TBD
1
Takedown avg.
TBD
9%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
50%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.50
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Colby ThicknesseMarcirley Alves
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (22%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
2 (22%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (56%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Colby Thicknesse and Marcirley Alves within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1667 vs 1667), separated by just 0 points.

Colby Thicknesse enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Colby Thicknesse finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Marcirley Alves 67%.

Colby Thicknesse carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.