Combat Edge Intelligence

Colby Thicknesse vs Muin Gafurov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-1-0Record20-7-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight136 lbs
Freestyle Fighting Gym· 1735 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTaj-Fighter

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Colby ThicknesseNow 1667
If they win+16→ 1683
If they lose-16→ 1651
Muin GafurovNow 1668
If they win+16→ 1684
If they lose-16→ 1652

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.33
Sig. strikes / min
2.89
42%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.21
50%
Strike defense
53%
1
Takedown avg.
1.47
9%
Takedown accuracy
26%
50%
Takedown defense
70%
0.50
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Colby ThicknesseMuin Gafurov
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (22%)
KO/TKO
10 (50%)
2 (22%)
Submission
7 (35%)
5 (56%)
Decision
3 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Colby Thicknesse52%
Muin Gafurov 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Colby Thicknesse a 52% favorite over Muin Gafurov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Muin Gafurov's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1667 vs 1668), separated by just 1 points.

Colby Thicknesse enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Colby Thicknesse finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Muin Gafurov 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.