Cole Miller vs TJ O'Brien
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-11-0Record20-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height6'2"
74,0"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamDes Moines Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Cole Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — TJ O'Brien carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1599
If they lose-17→ 1575
If they win+33→ 1488
If they lose-15→ 1440
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1619 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cole MillerTJ O'Brien
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cole Miller54%
TJ O'Brien 46%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Cole Miller a 54% favorite over TJ O'Brien in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Cole Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1592 to 1455, a 137-point edge.
Cole Miller enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
TJ O'Brien enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Cole Miller finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, TJ O'Brien 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.