Combat Edge Intelligence

Collin Hart vs Damian Janikowski

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-4-1Record11-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'11"
TBDReach70"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Nor-Cal Fighting AllianceTeamNemesis

What's at stake

Damian Janikowski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Collin Hart carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Collin HartNow 1504
If they win+25→ 1529
If they lose-23→ 1481
Damian JanikowskiNow 1521
If they win+15→ 1536
If they lose-17→ 1504

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.33
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
45%
Strike accuracy
TBD
7.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
51%
Strike defense
TBD
2
Takedown avg.
TBD
17%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
50%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Collin HartDamian Janikowski
150015502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (17%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
4 (67%)
Submission
2 (18%)
1 (17%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Damian Janikowski61%
Collin Hart 39%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Damian Janikowski a 61% favorite over Collin Hart in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Damian Janikowski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1504, a 17-point edge.

Collin Hart finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Damian Janikowski 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.