Collin Hart vs Geoff Pavey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-1Record3-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'5"
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Nor-Cal Fighting AllianceTeamSensei MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1528
If they lose-24→ 1480
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1493 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Collin HartGeoff Pavey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Pavey55%
Collin Hart 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 55% favorite over Collin Hart in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Collin Hart's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1504 vs 1501), separated by just 3 points.
Collin Hart finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Geoff Pavey 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.