Collin Hart vs Luke Barnatt
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-1Record15-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'6"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Nor-Cal Fighting AllianceTeamTsunami Gym
What's at stake
Luke Barnatt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Collin Hart carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1532
If they lose-20→ 1484
If they win+10→ 1577
If they lose-14→ 1553
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1493 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Collin HartLuke Barnatt
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Barnatt69%
Collin Hart 31%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Barnatt a 69% favorite over Collin Hart in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Luke Barnatt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1567 to 1504, a 63-point edge.
Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Collin Hart finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Luke Barnatt 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.