Coltin Cole vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-6-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Finney's HIT SquadTeamAstra Fight Team
What's at stake
Marcio Alexandre Junior is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Coltin Cole carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1465
If they lose-15→ 1433
If they win+23→ 1490
If they lose-25→ 1442
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1482 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Coltin ColeMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Coltin Cole53%
Marcio Alexandre Junior 47%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Coltin Cole a 53% favorite over Marcio Alexandre Junior in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcio Alexandre Junior's way (47%).
Marcio Alexandre Junior holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1467 to 1448, a 19-point edge.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Coltin Cole finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.