Combat Edge Intelligence

Colton Smith vs Diego Ferreira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-5-0Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
VanguardTeamFortis MMA

What's at stake

Diego Ferreira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Colton Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Colton SmithNow 1561
If they win+23→ 1584
If they lose-9→ 1552
Diego FerreiraNow 1737
If they win+6→ 1743
If they lose-18→ 1719

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.64
Sig. strikes / min
4.70
42%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.46
52%
Strike defense
56%
4.09
Takedown avg.
0.82
36%
Takedown accuracy
3%
25%
Takedown defense
58%
1.36
Submission avg.
0.55

Trajectory

Colton SmithDiego Ferreira
1600170020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
5 (25%)
1 (14%)
Submission
7 (35%)
4 (57%)
Decision
8 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Diego Ferreira80%
Colton Smith 20%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Diego Ferreira a 80% favorite over Colton Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Diego Ferreira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1561, a 176-point edge.

Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Diego Ferreira 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.