Combat Edge Intelligence

Colton Smith vs Diego Ferreira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-5-0Record19-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
VanguardTeamFortis MMA

What's at stake

Diego Ferreira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Colton Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Colton SmithNow 1560
If they win+23→ 1583
If they lose-9→ 1551
Diego FerreiraNow 1726
If they win+7→ 1733
If they lose-17→ 1709

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.64
Sig. strikes / min
4.82
42%
Strike accuracy
41%
2.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.46
52%
Strike defense
56%
4.09
Takedown avg.
0.86
36%
Takedown accuracy
30%
25%
Takedown defense
58%
1.36
Submission avg.
0.58

Trajectory

Colton SmithDiego Ferreira
160017002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
1 (14%)
Submission
7 (37%)
4 (57%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Diego Ferreira75%
Colton Smith 25%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Diego Ferreira a 75% favorite over Colton Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Diego Ferreira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1726 to 1560, a 166-point edge.

Diego Ferreira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Diego Ferreira 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.