Colton Smith vs Diego Ferreira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
VanguardTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Diego Ferreira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Colton Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-8→ 1553
If they win+6→ 1744
If they lose-18→ 1720
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Colton SmithDiego Ferreira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diego Ferreira85%
Colton Smith 15%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Diego Ferreira a 85% favorite over Colton Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Diego Ferreira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1738 to 1561, a 177-point edge.
Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Diego Ferreira 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.