Combat Edge Intelligence

Colton Smith vs Edmund Kwan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-5-0Record5-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
TBDReach71"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
VanguardTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Colton SmithNow 1561
If they win+16→ 1577
If they lose-16→ 1545
Edmund KwanNow 1561
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-24→ 1537

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.64
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
42%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
52%
Strike defense
TBD
4.09
Takedown avg.
TBD
36%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
25%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.36
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Colton SmithEdmund Kwan
1550160020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
1 (14%)
Submission
4 (80%)
4 (57%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Edmund Kwan59%
Colton Smith 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Edmund Kwan a 59% favorite over Colton Smith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Colton Smith's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1561), separated by just 0 points.

Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Edmund Kwan 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.