Combat Edge Intelligence

Colton Smith vs Hussein Fakher

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-5-0Record7-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
VanguardTeamDragon Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Colton SmithNow 1560
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
Hussein FakherNow 1562
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1496 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.64
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
42%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
52%
Strike defense
TBD
4.09
Takedown avg.
TBD
36%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
25%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.36
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Colton SmithHussein Fakher
150015502016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
1 (14%)
1 (14%)
Submission
4 (57%)
4 (57%)
Decision
2 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Hussein Fakher52%
Colton Smith 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Hussein Fakher a 52% favorite over Colton Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1560 vs 1562), separated by just 2 points.

Hussein Fakher enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Hussein Fakher 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.