Colton Smith vs Kacper Cholewa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record3-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
VanguardTeamSportowe Pulawy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1577
If they lose-16→ 1545
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-24→ 1537
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Colton SmithKacper Cholewa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kacper Cholewa52%
Colton Smith 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kacper Cholewa a 52% favorite over Colton Smith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Colton Smith's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1561), separated by just 0 points.
Kacper Cholewa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Kacper Cholewa 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.