Combat Edge Intelligence

Colton Smith vs Kevin Robledo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-5-0Record6-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5′6″
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight150 lbs
VanguardTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Colton SmithNow 1560
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
Kevin RobledoNow 1559
If they win+24→ 1583
If they lose-24→ 1535

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.64
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
42%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
52%
Strike defense
TBD
4.09
Takedown avg.
TBD
36%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
25%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.36
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Colton SmithKevin Robledo
15501600165020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
1 (14%)
Submission
3 (50%)
4 (57%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Colton Smith and Kevin Robledo within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1560 vs 1559), separated by just 1 points.

Kevin Robledo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Robledo 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.