Colton Smith vs Michael Chiesa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
VanguardTeamSikjitsu
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Colton Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1584
If they lose-8→ 1552
If they win+6→ 1764
If they lose-18→ 1740
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Colton SmithMichael Chiesa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa84%
Colton Smith 16%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 84% favorite over Colton Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1560, a 198-point edge.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chiesa 65%.
Colton Smith and Michael Chiesa share 1 common opponent: Sean Brady.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.