Combat Edge Intelligence

Colton Smith vs Mike Ricci

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Mike Ricci
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Mike Ricci

“The Accountant”

11-5-0LightweightWSOF

1614Solid

Tale of the tape

7-5-0Record11-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
VanguardTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Mike Ricci is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Colton Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Colton SmithNow 1561
If they win+18→ 1579
If they lose-14→ 1547
Mike RicciNow 1614
If they win+14→ 1628
If they lose-18→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.64
Sig. strikes / min
1.80
42%
Strike accuracy
32%
2.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.64
52%
Strike defense
66%
4.09
Takedown avg.
0.67
36%
Takedown accuracy
100%
25%
Takedown defense
54%
1.36
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Colton SmithMike Ricci
1550160020142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
1 (14%)
Submission
1 (9%)
4 (57%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Ricci56%
Colton Smith 44%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Ricci a 56% favorite over Colton Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Mike Ricci holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1614 to 1561, a 53-point edge.

Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Mike Ricci 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.