Connor Matthews vs Dennis Buzukja
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-4-0Record12-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'11"
71"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Lakeville MMA & FitnessTeamLongo and Weidman MMA
What's at stake
Dennis Buzukja is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Connor Matthews carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1580
If they lose-14→ 1548
If they win+14→ 1630
If they lose-18→ 1598
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Connor MatthewsDennis Buzukja
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dennis Buzukja71%
Connor Matthews 29%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Dennis Buzukja a 71% favorite over Connor Matthews in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Dennis Buzukja holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1562, a 54-point edge.
Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Dennis Buzukja enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Connor Matthews finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Dennis Buzukja 50%.
Connor Matthews and Dennis Buzukja share 1 common opponent: Francis Marshall.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.