Combat Edge Intelligence

Connor Matthews vs Jonathan Brookins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record16-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height6'0"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Lakeville MMA & FitnessTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Connor MatthewsNow 1562
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546
Jonathan BrookinsNow 1562
If they win+12→ 1574
If they lose-12→ 1550

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.08
Sig. strikes / min
2.69
43%
Strike accuracy
40%
6.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.63
56%
Strike defense
56%
3.46
Takedown avg.
1.94
56%
Takedown accuracy
17%
50%
Takedown defense
80%
0.69
Submission avg.
0.28

Trajectory

Connor MatthewsJonathan Brookins
1550160020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (14%)
KO/TKO
5 (31%)
5 (71%)
Submission
7 (44%)
1 (14%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Connor Matthews54%
Jonathan Brookins 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Connor Matthews a 54% favorite over Jonathan Brookins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1562 vs 1562), separated by just 0 points.

Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Connor Matthews finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Jonathan Brookins 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.