Combat Edge Intelligence

Connor Matthews vs Lance Lawrence

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record8-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height6'0"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Lakeville MMA & FitnessTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Connor MatthewsNow 1562
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546
Lance LawrenceNow 1555
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.08
Sig. strikes / min
5.87
43%
Strike accuracy
50%
6.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
9.80
56%
Strike defense
25%
3.46
Takedown avg.
1
56%
Takedown accuracy
100%
50%
Takedown defense
50%
0.69
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Connor MatthewsLance Lawrence
15501600202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (14%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
5 (71%)
Submission
5 (63%)
1 (14%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Lawrence59%
Connor Matthews 41%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Lawrence a 59% favorite over Connor Matthews in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Connor Matthews's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1562 vs 1555), separated by just 7 points.

Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Connor Matthews finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Lance Lawrence 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.