Combat Edge Intelligence

Connor Matthews vs Mike Wilkinson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record9-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Lakeville MMA & FitnessTeamAtherton Submission Wrestling

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Connor MatthewsNow 1562
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546
Mike WilkinsonNow 1561
If they win+16→ 1577
If they lose-16→ 1545

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.08
Sig. strikes / min
2.35
43%
Strike accuracy
38%
6.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.70
56%
Strike defense
36%
3.46
Takedown avg.
0.92
56%
Takedown accuracy
14%
50%
Takedown defense
56%
0.69
Submission avg.
0.92

Trajectory

Connor MatthewsMike Wilkinson
155016001650201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (14%)
KO/TKO
3 (33%)
5 (71%)
Submission
4 (44%)
1 (14%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Connor Matthews52%
Mike Wilkinson 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Connor Matthews a 52% favorite over Mike Wilkinson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1562 vs 1561), separated by just 1 points.

Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mike Wilkinson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Connor Matthews finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Mike Wilkinson 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.