Combat Edge Intelligence

Conor McCarthy vs Keith Wisniewski

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-1-0Record28-15-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
158 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG NaasTeamDuneland Vale Tudo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Conor McCarthyNow 1606
If they win+24→ 1630
If they lose-24→ 1582
Keith WisniewskiNow 1606
If they win+12→ 1618
If they lose-12→ 1594

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1524 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.32
TBD
Strike accuracy
52%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.86
TBD
Strike defense
43%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.57
TBD
Takedown accuracy
40%
TBD
Takedown defense
79%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.26

Trajectory

Conor McCarthyKeith Wisniewski
155016001650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
6 (21%)
0 (0%)
Submission
15 (54%)
3 (50%)
Decision
7 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Conor McCarthy67%
Keith Wisniewski 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Conor McCarthy a 67% favorite over Keith Wisniewski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1606), separated by just 0 points.

Keith Wisniewski enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Conor McCarthy finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Keith Wisniewski 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.