Conor McCarthy vs Shane Roller
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-1-0Record11-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
158 lbsWeight155 lbs
SBG NaasTeamTeam Takedown
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1660
If they lose-24→ 1612
If they win+16→ 1652
If they lose-16→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Conor McCarthyShane Roller
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Roller58%
Conor McCarthy 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Roller a 58% favorite over Conor McCarthy in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Conor McCarthy's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1636 vs 1636), separated by just 0 points.
Shane Roller enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Conor McCarthy finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Shane Roller 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.