Combat Edge Intelligence

Conor McGregor vs Demian Maia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record28-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamDemian Maia Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Conor McGregorNow 1774
If they win+16→ 1790
If they lose-16→ 1758
Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+12→ 1786
If they lose-12→ 1762

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1768 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.32
Sig. strikes / min
1.80
50%
Strike accuracy
44%
4.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
54%
Strike defense
64%
0.67
Takedown avg.
2.49
56%
Takedown accuracy
25%
67%
Takedown defense
62%
0.13
Submission avg.
0.99

Trajectory

Conor McGregorDemian Maia
18002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

19 (86%)
KO/TKO
3 (11%)
1 (5%)
Submission
14 (50%)
2 (9%)
Decision
11 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Conor McGregor70%
Demian Maia 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Conor McGregor a 70% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1774 vs 1774), separated by just 0 points.

Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Demian Maia 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.