Conor McGregor vs Demian Maia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record28-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamDemian Maia Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1789
If they lose-16→ 1757
If they win+12→ 1786
If they lose-12→ 1762
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1750 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1768 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Conor McGregorDemian Maia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Conor McGregor66%
Demian Maia 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Conor McGregor a 66% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demian Maia's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1773 vs 1774), separated by just 1 points.
Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Demian Maia 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.