Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record36-17-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
74"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamBMF Ranch
What's at stake
Conor McGregor is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Donald Cerrone carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1787
If they lose-19→ 1755
If they win+14→ 1724
If they lose-10→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Conor McGregorDonald Cerrone
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Conor McGregor87%
Donald Cerrone 13%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Conor McGregor a 87% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Conor McGregor holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1710, a 64-point edge.
Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Donald Cerrone 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.