Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record30-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
74"Reach72″
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Conor McGregor carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1792
If they lose-14→ 1760
If they win+11→ 1823
If they lose-13→ 1799
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1814 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Conor McGregorDustin Poirier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier54%
Conor McGregor 46%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 54% favorite over Conor McGregor in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1774, a 38-point edge.
Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier 77%.
Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier share 2 common opponents: Max Holloway and Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Conor McGregor carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.