Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record30-8-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
74"Reach69,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamRicardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Eddie Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Conor McGregor carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1791
If they lose-15→ 1759
If they win+11→ 1807
If they lose-13→ 1783
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Conor McGregorEddie Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Conor McGregor70%
Eddie Alvarez 30%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Conor McGregor a 70% favorite over Eddie Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Eddie Alvarez's way (47%).
Eddie Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1774, a 22-point edge.
Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Eddie Alvarez 80%.
Conor McGregor and Eddie Alvarez share 2 common opponents: Dustin Poirier and Donald Cerrone.
Conor McGregor carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.