Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record29-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
74"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamFightspirit Team
What's at stake
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Conor McGregor carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1795
If they lose-11→ 1763
If they win+8→ 1898
If they lose-16→ 1874
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Conor McGregorKhabib Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Khabib Nurmagomedov70%
Conor McGregor 30%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 70% favorite over Conor McGregor in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1774, a 116-point edge.
Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.
Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov share 1 common opponent: Dustin Poirier.
Conor McGregor carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.