Combat Edge Intelligence

Conor McGregor vs Magomed Umalatov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record18-1-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'1"
74"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamEagles MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Conor McGregorNow 1774
If they win+16→ 1790
If they lose-16→ 1758
Magomed UmalatovNow 1779
If they win+16→ 1795
If they lose-16→ 1763

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1629 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.32
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
50%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
0.67
Takedown avg.
TBD
56%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.13
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Conor McGregorMagomed Umalatov
175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

19 (86%)
KO/TKO
12 (67%)
1 (5%)
Submission
2 (11%)
2 (9%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Magomed Umalatov61%
Conor McGregor 39%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Umalatov a 61% favorite over Conor McGregor in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1774 vs 1779), separated by just 5 points.

Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Umalatov 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.