Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record28-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
74"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamGracie Technics
What's at stake
Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Conor McGregor carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1793
If they lose-13→ 1761
If they win+10→ 1840
If they lose-14→ 1816
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Conor McGregorMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Max Holloway71%
Conor McGregor 29%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 71% favorite over Conor McGregor in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1774, a 56-point edge.
Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
Conor McGregor and Max Holloway share 1 common opponent: Dustin Poirier.
Conor McGregor carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.