Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
74"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Conor McGregor is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1785
If they lose-20→ 1753
If they win+15→ 1688
If they lose-9→ 1664
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1750 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Conor McGregor72%
Nate Diaz 28%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Conor McGregor a 72% favorite over Nate Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Conor McGregor holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1773 to 1673, a 100-point edge.
Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Nate Diaz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.