Combat Edge Intelligence

Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
74"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Conor McGregor is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Conor McGregorNow 1774
If they win+12→ 1786
If they lose-20→ 1754
Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+15→ 1689
If they lose-9→ 1665

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.32
Sig. strikes / min
4.57
50%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.77
54%
Strike defense
53%
0.67
Takedown avg.
1.05
56%
Takedown accuracy
31%
67%
Takedown defense
42%
0.13
Submission avg.
1.29

Win method breakdown

19 (86%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
1 (5%)
Submission
12 (57%)
2 (9%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Conor McGregor70%
Nate Diaz 30%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Conor McGregor a 70% favorite over Nate Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Conor McGregor holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1674, a 100-point edge.

Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.

Nate Diaz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.