Conor McGregor vs Thad Jean
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record12-0-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'2"
74"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamFight Sports Deerfield Beach
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1790
If they lose-16→ 1758
If they win+16→ 1786
If they lose-16→ 1754
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Conor McGregorThad Jean
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thad Jean63%
Conor McGregor 37%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Thad Jean a 63% favorite over Conor McGregor in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Conor McGregor's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1774 vs 1770), separated by just 4 points.
Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Thad Jean enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Thad Jean 58%.
Thad Jean carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.