Conor McGregor vs Tyron Woodley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record19-7-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
74"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamAmerican Top Team Evolution
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1790
If they lose-16→ 1758
If they win+12→ 1786
If they lose-12→ 1762
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1761 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Conor McGregorTyron Woodley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Conor McGregor79%
Tyron Woodley 21%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Conor McGregor a 79% favorite over Tyron Woodley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1774 vs 1774), separated by just 0 points.
Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Conor McGregor finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Tyron Woodley 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.