Corey Anderson vs Maurício Rua
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record27-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
79"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
The Kennel Fight ClubTeamUniversidade da Luta
What's at stake
Corey Anderson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Maurício Rua carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1796
If they lose-15→ 1772
If they win+15→ 1706
If they lose-9→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Corey AndersonMaurício Rua
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Corey Anderson84%
Maurício Rua 16%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Corey Anderson a 84% favorite over Maurício Rua in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Corey Anderson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1787 to 1691, a 96-point edge.
Corey Anderson enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Corey Anderson finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Maurício Rua 81%.
Corey Anderson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.