Combat Edge Intelligence

Corey Hill vs Justin Buchholz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Corey Hill
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Corey Hill

“The Real Deal”

6-9-0WelterweightFTP

1522Average

Tale of the tape

6-9-0Record16-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'4"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
168 lbsWeight170 lbs
KO EvolutionTeamIndependent

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Corey HillNow 1522
If they win+16→ 1538
If they lose-16→ 1506
Justin BuchholzNow 1532
If they win+12→ 1544
If they lose-12→ 1520

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1539 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.57
Sig. strikes / min
2.35
46%
Strike accuracy
27%
1.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.14
70%
Strike defense
51%
3.02
Takedown avg.
0
80%
Takedown accuracy
0%
100%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Corey HillJustin Buchholz
155016001650201320142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

2 (33%)
KO/TKO
8 (53%)
3 (50%)
Submission
6 (40%)
1 (17%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Buchholz60%
Corey Hill 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Buchholz a 60% favorite over Corey Hill in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1522 vs 1532), separated by just 10 points.

Corey Hill enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Corey Hill finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Justin Buchholz 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.